COVID19 and DataScience

COVID19 and DataScience

"There are Lies, Damn Lies, and then there are Statistics."

 

As COVID19 has been the big news, our team decided to splice up the data to help us understand what is happening during this panademic. We were using this data to help government agencies and other entrepreneurs to aid in decision-making. This summary was actually requested by Twitter follower Pat Trammell. A shout-out to Pat @pbtide for calling this out to us! Thank you for your important feedback. We added Alabama to our analysis for you.

We took a look at Pat's Twitter biography to get a sense of what he would be using this data for. According to his bio, Pat is a career Banker and President of Southeastern Commercial Finance, LLC. They do Asset Based Lending in partnership with the Banking Industry. Our goal in doing this summary is to provide decision-makers like Pat the hard data needed during this panademic rather than relying solely on intuition.

Our data was initially meant to be shared internally but we started getting many requests from others about the data. A note that we aggregated data from many sources along with researching relevant news stories that may affect statistics. We omitted any states or countries that were outliers or were not transparent in data reporting. 

California was used as a baseline as they were the first state to lockdown on March 19 and because our business is based in the state giving us a better view of the political and economic landscape. California has a population of approximately 40 million residents and has a bigger population than any of the other states analyzed. California has a fatality % of 3.844 which is a good number to show COVID19 is under control. The footnotes to the chart is as follows:

  • < 4% COVID19 under control
  •  between 4-6% indicates a COVID19 outbreak possibly happening
  •  > 6% COVID19 out of control

The opposite of California would be Louisiana at 5.678 fatality %. Louisiana is a densely populated state with 4.7 million residents similar to New York. Unlike New York, Louisiana had a super-spreader event called Mardi Gras. After this event, the number of COVID19 cases exploded. It was similar to New Year's in China with respect to "outbreak events" that pivoted COVID19.

Florida is at a low 3.094 fatality % but this statistic can be deceiving. Super-spreader events like Spring Break at beaches in Florida and the Winter Party Festival in Miami Beach this statistic is bound to change upwards. In addition, Florida has a large elderly population in nursing homes. So why did Florida just open up their beaches? This lax social distancing is a recipe for a coronavirus outbreak.

New York is only 1/5 the size of California with respect to population. But their fatality rate is over 16X that of California. Contributing factors include a densely packed transit system and population, lax social distancing standards, and tourists from both China and Europe that were infected with COVID19 when they arrived in the United States. Compare this to the European countries we analyzed. Italy is 2.5X and Sweden is 1.5X the fatality % of New York.

Politicians and business owners, alike, need a solid voter and customer base respectively to WIN. It wouldn't help either to lose voters, customers, or employees to this panademic. The bottom line for everyone is to flatten the curve ASAP and get back to work with the fewest fatalities possible. Limiting the fatalities would also help the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. Attached is a CNN link reporting some state's strategy to get Americans working again. Going back to California, locking down the state early and practicing disciplined social distancing works and it saved lives. The Team hopes governors will look at data rather than intuition before making important decisions regarding COVID19. As Entrepreneurs & Founders, we hope that we can flatten the curve quickly and get Americans back to work. Long term unemployment is not good for workers or small businesses. We have clients and partners around the United States so we want to do what is good for America.

Let us know your thoughts and comments in our forum or on Twitter. THANK YOU to all the essential workers keeping America running. Keep Yourself and Your Families Safe.  STAY STRONG AMERICA!!!

 




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