“Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results.”
As Entrepreneurs and Founders, we believe innovation is the only strategy to beating the bigger competitors. Innovation means disrupting the status quo and establishment rules. It means doing something differently that has value to your customers. Politics is a typical establishment environment where dinosaurs operate and never die. But Entrepreneurs and Founders need to have a better awareness of how politics affects the business environment. Politics and regulations greatly affect startups and entrepreneurs. Even in politics, there is a strategy in winning and disrupting the establishment. This is a case study in what not to do based on 8 metrics or what you call electability indicators.
2016 ELECTION: Hillary Clinton
Record: Hillary Clinton lost to Barack Obama in 2008 and lost to Donald Trump in 2016. A winning record is important because it shows you can produce results.
Demographics: Clinton lost a lot of the younger voters because they could not relate to her. She also disparaged black voters due to her policies and any crossover vote by calling Trump voters "Deplorables." This actually galvanized potential crossover voters against her who considered her spiteful, unqualified and out-of-touch. Younger voters flocked to Bernie Sanders or did not vote when Sanders dropped out.
Social Media: On social media, twitter followers is a key metric. For comparison, Barack Obama has 115 million followers and Donald Trump has 76 million followers on Twitter. Hillary Clinton only had about 27 million Twitter followers during her run for President in 2016.
Scandals: Uranium One, Clinton Foundation, Harvey Weinstein, and email scandals. It didn't help that she was also associated with her husband Bill Clinton's sexual harrassment scandals.
Charisma: As a leader, you have to be able to relate to your followers. Clinton was known to be condescending to the American people. Name calling people Super Predators and Deplorables? It's not how you win over voters. Most Americans only knew Hillary because of her husband. It's like in business when you get a title but you didn't earn the title or the respect of the followers. Did she win over the hearts of the American people?
Health: As in Entrepreneurship, being the President is a tough job and not for the faint of heart. It use to be you would see photo ops of Presidents taking morning jogs with the secret service. It was never shown that Hillary Clinton had the stamina to be President. Clinton never did the big rallies like Trump or Sanders. There were videos of her "fainting" after engagements in NY.
Establishment: She was the chosen one for the DNC as a established player and has been in politics for decades with her husband Bill Clinton. This metric is important because the politicians that ran against incumbents had a grass-root movement and disrupted the status quo.
2020 ELECTION: Joe Biden
Record: Joe Biden ran for President in 1988 and 2008 with not good results. Did Biden change anything in his campaign from his first two Presidential losses? Is third time a charm?
Demographics: As Biden ran against Sanders in the primaries, after Sanders dropped out many of his supporters say they would never support Biden. The #NeverBiden movement consisting of a younger demographics larger and unlike the #NeverTrump movement. This is the type of crossover votes Joe Biden needs to win against an incumbent President along with Bernie Sanders supporters. But will Biden win over Bernie Sanders supporters when he doesn't even believe in M4A, minimum wage, and debt relief? The real test is if he steps up as a leader during the coronavirus panademic.
Social Media: Joe Biden has a measly 4.9 million followers on Twitter. For comparison, his former boss Barack Obama has 115 million followers and Donald Trump has 76 million followers on Twitter. Biden and his Team has shown that they are not adept with technology and social media. This will put him at a disadvantage getting the younger generation's vote who love and embrace technology and social media.
Scandals: Ukraine scandal associated with his son Hunter Biden, being linked to MBNA and other corporate banking interests, and sexual assault allegations from many women (Tara Reade). These are similar to what Hillary Clinton faced where many Americans didn't trust her because of these scandals.
Charisma: Followers will show you their belief in you through their actions. You have seen the rallies of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. Do you see that type of support at Joe Biden rallies? Charisma is important because it shows your confidence and likeability. It is far and beyond that you see a president without charisma. It's what got Barack Obama into the White House and elected twice.
Health: Many critics have pointed out Biden's cognitive decline and some even say it is dementia. His schedule and speaking engagements seem to be decreasing during the Covid19 panademic. Joe Biden would be 82 years old by the end of his first term if he was President. Looking at video of Biden it looks like he has cognitive decline and some say dementia. This means he would have to pick a young VP in case something happened to him.
Establishment: Joe Biden seems to have been given the "chosen one" title by default. With his good friend Bernie Sanders dropping out, it cleared the pathway for him to try to be President for the third time. The establishment is behind him but how about the American people.
Fundraising: As an incumbent President, Trump has the advantage unlike he had in 2016. According to fundraising numbers reported in March, the joint reelection effort between the Trump campaign and the RNC had over $230 million in cash on hand across all entities. Biden and the DNC enters the general election with $26 million in cash on hand. Compare this to 2016 where Hillary Clinton fundraised almost double with $1.2 billion raised where Trump only raised $647 million.
With the coronavirus panademic, it disrupts what should have been a regular election. To win now, you have to show the confidence and decision-making ability of a courageous leader. Do you see that in Biden or Trump? The leader who becomes President will be the one that leads Americans out of this coronavirus panademic.
The bottom line question is this, "Is Joe Biden running as Hillary Clinton 2.0?" Entrepreneurs hate dinosaurs as they understand being one means bankruptcy. Whoever we choose to be the President of the United States is a serious choice. To disrupt an incumbent President running for his second term, you can't use the strategy of maintaining the status quo. The strategy has to be to innovate or die like the dinosaurs. The winner of this election definitely won't be the candidate who maintains the status quo and establishment rules.
Remember the quote above, "Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results." What are your thoughts on innovation, disruption, and dinosaurs?
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