ANALYSIS: TOP 10 Reasons Trump will win in 2020
As we watched the Democratic debates and examined the potential Presidential hopefuls, we also saw the writing on the wall that Trump would win reelection in 2020. There was hope in seeing the diversity of candidates and seeing a tech executive, Andrew Yang, among them in the debates. But HOPE is different than REALITY. Our analysis is based on unbiased, non-partisan, pro-business research. Here are our TOP 10 reasons Trump will win in 2020:
- It's the Economy, Stupid! - The economy is an important factor for Presidential elections. Trump has all the numbers on his side with historically low unemployment, higher wages, low interest rates, and solid economic growth. Even though the signs of a recession have been predicted, this might not happen until after the election which will work to Trump's advantage.
- Incumbent Presidents have an advantage - Since 1900, the incumbent Presidents have won 15 of the 19 elections to become two-term Presidents. For the statistics nerds among us, this is a 78.9% winning rate for incumbents. The numbers are against any Presidential challengers, Democrat or Republican.
- Trump is a Master Troller and Social Media Genius - No matter what you think of Trump, He knows how to use social media to his advantage especially on his favorite platform, Twitter. The numbers tell the story of why Trump won in 2016 and will win in 2020 using social media. Barack Obama : 107 million followers on Twitter; Donald Trump : 61.5 million followers on Twitter; Hillary Clinton : 24.7 million followers on Twitter; Joe Biden : 3.61 million followers on Twitter; Andrew Yang : 490 thousand followers on Twitter
- America embraces capitalism not socialism - During the debates, Democrats are trying to sell ideas like universal healthcare, tuition-free college, taxes on the wealthy, and universal basic income. But most Americans who vote either don't care or don't understand these socialist ideas. Our founding Fathers built our nation on a foundation of capitalism not socialism. This is why we call it the United States of America (USA) not the United Socialist States of America (USAA). All the voting socialists who hated Trump already moved to Canada in 2016!
- America is still racist - Even though Americans voted in our first black President, Barack Obama, to two terms, America is still racist. America is not ready for either a woman President, a Mexican or an Asian President. The issue is that the voting demographics is split among all of these groups so there is not a clear path to winning and beating Trump. Not good for candidates like Andrew Yang or Kamala Harris.
- Democrats not fully backing a candidate - With 20 presidential candidates for Democrats, it doesn't look good as there is no focus and party cohesiveness. This lack of focus and party cohesiveness will result in vote-splitting as in 2016. In a two party system, the DNC has already chosen their candidate in Joe Biden as they chose Hillary Clinton in 2016. If you don't like Biden, you will vote-split choosing a different Democrat or even worse, not vote at all. But where are Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton in endorsing a candidate? Are these debates just a superficial smokescreen acting as democracy?
- Trump now has a war chest in funding and election operations - 2016 is going to be a lot different than 2020 as Trump has more robust funding and election operations. In just his first rally in Florida, President Trump raked in a HUUUGE $25 million. 2016 was a different story where Clinton's campaign raised $581 million versus Trump's campaign raised $340 million. Trump won't be outspent or run lean in election operations in 2020 leading to reelection.
- Republicans will vote for Trump even though they hate him - Republicans that hate Trump don't want to be chastised by their fellow Republicans or outcasted by the RNC. They rather vote for Trump than vote for the EVIL Democrats. It's the age-old dilemma of voting for the lessor of two evils! Any questions Mitt Romney?
- Trump has a mobilized base and strategy - Trump's first term win was a learning curve for the businessman turned politician. In 2016, his voting base didn't even think he could win. 2020 will be the year Trump will really use his mobilized base and electoral college strategy to his advantage. The weakness with California Presidential candidates is that they are too focused on popular vote rather electoral vote. This is the same mistake Democrats made in 2016 where they won the popular vote by 3 million plus but lost the Presidency by losing the electoral college. A HUUUGE mistake in misunderstanding the basics of Electoral College 101. Are you listening Kamala Harris and Andrew Yang?
- Timing is not on Democrat's side! - There are major events that just haven't happened during the Trump Presidency which were widely predicted. A Recession? Impeachment Proceedings? Nixon-like Scandal? Sexual harassment accusations from 30 years ago will not bring Trump down. Democrats have tried that with Justice Brett Kavanaugh and President Trump with no results. With over a year to go, it doesn't look like timing is on Democrat's side!
For the business and start-up community, there is a lot more to lose with a Democratic President espousing the current socialist policies. For Trump, there is no way he will lose in 2020 unless a recession happens, some type of Nixon-like scandal is uncovered, or impeachment actually happens. What do you think about the elections 2020? Have a comment on one of these reasons Trump will win? Leave a comment on our forum.
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